Lo que está frenando a la economía

Richard W. Fisher. President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Leo el siguiente artículo:

“Nadie en la Fed sabe realmente lo que está frenando la economía”

Me sorprende.

Leo párrafos como el siguiente:

“………… como observó Richard Fisher, de la Fed de Dallas, en un contundente discurso este miércoles: "Nadie en el comité sabe realmente qué está frenando la economía. Nadie sabe realmente qué funcionará para llevarla de nuevo a la senda del crecimiento. La misma gente que deseamos que alimente el consumo y la demanda final creando empleo y expandiendo la inversión empresarial no está respondiendo a nuestras iniciativas de política como debería según sugiere la teoría".

Voy a la fuente original:

http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2012/fs120919.cfm

Speeches by Richard W. Fisher

Comments to the Harvard Club of New York City on Monetary Policy (With Reference to Tommy Tune, Nicole Parent, the FOMC, Velcro, Drunken Sailors and Congress)

Remarks before the Harvard Club of New York City

New York, N.Y. · September 19, 2012

………… The truth, however, is that nobody on the committee, nor on our staffs at the Board of Governors and the 12 Banks, really knows what is holding back the economy. Nobody really knows what will work to get the economy back on course. And nobody—in fact, no central bank anywhere on the planet—has the experience of successfully navigating a return home from the place in which we now find ourselves. No central bank—not, at least, the Federal Reserve—has ever been on this cruise before.

………… Certain theories and various hypothetical studies and models tell us that flooding the markets with copious amounts of cheap, plentiful liquidity will lift final demand, both through the “wealth effect” channel and by directly stimulating businesses to expand and hire. And yet from the perspective of my watch station—as I have reported time and again—the very people we wish to stoke consumption and final demand by creating jobs and expanding business fixed investment are not responding to our policy initiatives as well as theory might suggest.

Y me viene a la cabeza la siguiente cita de Antal E. Fekete (Enlace1) (Enlace2):

La productividad marginal de la deuda es un capataz sin imaginación. Insiste constantemente que la deuda debe estar justificada por un incremento mínimo en el PIB. Porque, de otro modo, se entra en el círculo vicioso de la destrucción de capital. Al principio no hay signos aparentes de problema alguno. Pero las semillas de destrucción han echado raíces de forma inevitable e invisible y llegará un momento en el que detendrán el crecimiento y la producción.

The marginal productivity of debt is an unimaginative taskmaster. It insists that new debt be justified by a minimum increase in the GDP. Otherwise capital destruction follows ― a most vicious process. At first, there are no signs of trouble. If anything the picture looks rosier than ever. But the seeds of destruction inevitably, if invisibly, have sprouted and will at one point paralyze further growth and production.